一个实验告诉你什么是认知偏差。
我想问你几个问题：just gonna ask you a few questions。
我们对你的想法感兴趣，我这有一瓶不错的香槟。this question concerns this，have here，2005年的好年份古董瓶子。uh Miller scene 2005 is a good，这些人以为自己将用缓慢理性的系统二。
these people think they're about to use slow sensible system too，来决定要付多少钱。to make a rational decision，来买一瓶香槟。about how much they would pay for a bottle of girlagne，但他们不知道。but what they don't know is that their decision will actually be taken 自己将在毫无察觉的情况下，totally without their 给出一个全由系统一：by their hidden fast autopilot system 1，自动快速的作出决策。
只要一袋乒乓球 ping pong balls，we can influence that decision，这个袋子装有标着从一到一百的球。set of numbered balls here，from 1 200 in this bag。I'd like you to reach in and draw one out at random for me，I'd like to reach in and draw one out at random for me，too me，one out at random for me，if you would worry 晚上 they've got to choose a ball number -十号-十号。
他们以为数字是随机的其实不然。they think it's a random number but in fact it's rigged，所有球上都写着十。
这一实验是为了验证this experiment is all about the thoughtless，习惯的不经意产生。
为了说明我们一旦微出决策，it's about how we make one decision，为了说明我们一旦做出决策Caroling and then other decisions follow it，就像第一个决策有什么意义似的。as if the 1st decision was like this study 望闻部门部门，我们故意给人们一个显然毫无意义的先驱决策。people a lst decision that is clearly meaningless - 十-十好的你会不会？would you be willing to pay 十镑买这瓶陈年香槟呢？reminds for this nice pot，leviache is 给它补钙 for this pod spite of 好，不会-大概会的-好。
先驱决策是毫无意义的。this 1st decision is very birthday for a 态度 very for it is on a see mingly random number，但它把十这个数字放进人们脑中。but what it does do he's 规劝 the low number 10 in their heads，你会花十镑买它吗？
yes I would -我会-你会吗？you would okay Now for the real 共处 where we ask them now for the real question。
where we asked them how much they'd actually pay for the cup for the 矫情's the maximum amount you think you'd be willing to play -二十镑-好的。
选装ven gounds-Stven pounds，OK，
出价都不高。
但假设我们把更高的数字植入人们脑中呢。but what happens if we prime people with a much higher number 六十五镑而非十镑。
上面写的几-六十五-六十五，okay 65 okay says 65 65。这对大家的出价有什么影响吗？How will this affect the price people are prepared to pay how will this affect the price people are prepared to pay to pay 这瓶香槟你最多愿意。
出价多少钱？you would be willing to pay for the spot of wine -四十镑-四十五镑。4040 5x 45 okay 45 镑，五十镑-五十镑-五十镑。
我大概愿意花五十到八十镑，yeah it's paid between 50 and E80 so -五十到八十镑-对 between 50 and 80 yeah，逻辑被搁置一旁。
logic has gone out the window 人们愿意花多少钱？the price people are prepared to pay is influenced by nothing more than a number two three 想 by 老李 two 才 出来。
筷子 上写的数字影响而已。written on a ping pong ball ， 实验表明当我们无法抉择时。It suggests that when we can't make decisions，it suggests that when we come to make decisions it suggests that we come to make decisions，我们并不审视决策本身。we don't evaluate the decision in itself，相反 我们会找出 instead what we do is we 过去做的相似决定。
try to look at made in the past and we take those decisions，and we said to ourself oh I've made this decision and solve this decision let me we can't make decisions，it suggests that when we come to make decisions， it is a master of taking 她致力于产生最快决策，to bring about the quickest possible decision，if the question is difficult，而有一个相关问题..'there is a related 你就会在无意识中...you're just going to answer the other question 直接回答另一个问题，and not even notice system of shortcuts，因此这一系统走各种捷径。so the system does all kinds of shortcut that of 上路，以便更快给我们信息让我们行动。to freed us the information in the 前's way，we can make actions，而且系统能容忍些许错误。and the system is reaching some mistakes，我们用快捷的系统一决策，we make decisions using fast system 1，但实际上我们该用的是系统二，when we really should be using slow system 2，这就是我们错误决策的原因。and this is why we make the mistakes we do 指人们根据一定表现现象而对他人作出判断，从而出现判断失误。这种系统错误叫做认知偏差。
我们并不审视决策本身。we don't evaluate the 设设，If we do is we pod 和和出来。
